# Are Economic Forecasters Too Confident in Their Predictions? 📊

**URL:** <https://onehack.st/t/are-economic-forecasters-too-confident-in-their-predictions/290668>\
**Category:** News & Articles\
**Tags:** tools, news\
**Created:** [September 5, 2024, 10:39am UTC](https://onehack.st/t/are-economic-forecasters-too-confident-in-their-predictions/290668 "2024-09-05T10:39:07Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Page:** 1

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**Author:** ![TheJoker](https://onehack.st/user_avatar/onehack.st/thejoker/32/22660_2.png) [@TheJoker](https://onehack.st/u/TheJoker)\
**Post date:** [September 5, 2024, 10:39am UTC](https://onehack.st/t/are-economic-forecasters-too-confident-in-their-predictions/290668/1 "2024-09-05T10:39:08Z")

</div>

Summary:

* * *

1. **Overestimation of Long-Term Accuracy**  
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s study shows that professional forecasters often overestimate their accuracy for long-term predictions, with actual errors being two to four times larger than their estimated uncertainty ranges.

2. **Underestimation of Short-Term Precision**  
For short-term forecasts (less than three months), forecasters typically overestimate potential errors, suggesting a misjudgment in their predictive accuracy.

3. **Variability and Model Dependence**  
The study points to significant variability in uncertainty estimates among forecasters and challenges the rational expectations theory, attributing discrepancies to differences in forecasting models and assumptions.

**Read more at:** [New York Fed](https://newyorkfed.org)